The world population growth explained by the Ikea boxes
poplazione the world by 2060 will reach 9 billion people. Going to make the planet to meet the needs of all? Under current conditions may not: to survive need to improve the living conditions of the poorest. It is the paradoxical thesis of Hans Rosling, the statistical guru, who with the help of some boxes of Ikea explains how to control population growth.
This is a transcript of the conference
I still remember when I went to school. When the teacher told us that the world population had reached three billion. We were in 1960. Now I will talk about how the world's population has changed since then and how it will change in the future. But I will not use digital technology as I did in my first five TEDTalks. In fact, I have evolved. Today I will launch a new analog technology for learning that I took dall'Ikea: this box. This box contains a billion people. Our teacher told us that the industrialized world in 1960, had a billion people. in the developing countries, he said, had two billion people. And they were far away, then. There was a large gap between one billion and two billion in the industrialized world in the developing world. In the developed world, people were healthy, educated, wealthy, and had small families. Their aspiration was buying a car. In 1960, all Swedes spared to try to buy a Volvo like this. This was the economic level where he was in Sweden. But in contrast to this, in the developing world, far away, the aspiration of the average household, there was to have food for the day. And save to buy a pair of shoes. There was a huge gap in the world when I grew up. And this gap between the West and the rest of the world has created a mentality that we still use when we speak of linguistically '"West" and "the developing world." But the world has changed, and it is too late to change this mentality, this taxonomy of the world, and to understand it. And this is what I will show you. Why, since 1960, what has happened in the world for 2010 is that a staggering four billion people were added to world population. Look how many. The world population has doubled since I went to school. And of course, there has been economic growth in the West. Many companies have made the economy grow, and the western population has moved here. And now their desire is not just about having a car. Now they want a holiday in a very remote place and want to fly. And here is where I am now. And developing nations that have developed better, have advanced. And emerging economies have become, as we call them. And now they are buying cars. And what happened a month ago is that the Chinese company Geely, bought the Volvo. And then the Swedes have understood that something big has happened in the world. (Laughter) So here they are. The tragedy here is that the two billion who are fighting for food and shoes, they are still poor as they were almost 50 years ago. The novelty is that we have the largest pile of billion, three billion here, which are in turn become the emerging economies, because they are quite healthy, relatively well educated, and have already two or three children per woman, like these. And their ambition is, of course, to buy a bike, and later the piacerebbe avere anche un ciclomotore. Ma questo è il mondo che abbiamo oggi. Niente più divari. Ma la distanza tra i più poveri, i veramente poveri, dai veramente ricchi qui, è maggiore che mai. Ma c'è una continuità nel mondo da camminare, pedalare, guidare, volare -- persone su tutti i livelli. E la maggior parte è da qualche parte nel centro. Questo è il mondo che abbiamo oggi nel 2010 Cosa accadrà in futuro? Bene, mi proietterò nel 2050. Sono stato a Shanghai recentemente. E ho ascoltato ciò che sta accadendo in Cina. E' abbastanza certo che ci raggiungeranno, come ha già fatto il Giappone. Tutte le proiezioni -- questo crescerà dell'uno o due per cento. E questo cresce del setto, otto. It will end up above. Begin to fly. And these nations with low or middle income, emerging economies, they also imitate the economic ascent. And if, but only if we invest in green technology right - in order to avoid dangerous climate change, and energy can be relatively cheap - then they will reach far. It will begin to buy electric cars. This is what we'll find there. As for the two billion poorest? What about the two billion poorest here? Go ahead? Well, here the population is there because we already have two or three children per woman, is widely used family planning and population growth will end. Here, the population is growing. So these two billion over the next decades, will grow up to three billion. And then grow up to four billion. There is nothing but a nuclear war of the sort that we've never seen that can stop this happening. Because it has already begun. But if, and only if, out of poverty, are educated, they get a lower infant mortality, if they can buy a bicycle and a mobile phone and get here, population growth will stop in 2050. We can not have people at this level in search of food and shoes, because we would get a continuous population growth. Let me show you why sending back the old days the technology digital. Here I have my notes on the screen of the countries. Each bubble is a country. The size and population. The color shows the continent. The yellow here are the Americas, Africa is dark blue, brown is Europe, the Middle East is green, light blue and this is the South Asia This is India and this is China. The size and population. Here children per woman, two children, four children, six children, eight children - large families, small families. They and 1960. And below, infant mortality, the percentage of children who survived infancy up to starting school. 60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90, and nearly 100 percent, as now in richer countries and more healthy. Look, this is the world of which my teacher was talking in 1960. A billion here the West, low infant mortality, smaller families. and the rest, the rainbow of developing countries, with large families and high infant mortality. What happened? Launching the world. Here we are. Can you see, as the years pass, the child survival increases? They get soap, hygiene, education, vaccines, penicillin. And with family planning family size decreases. Much as 90 percent of child survival, and families fall. And most Arab nations, the Middle East is falling below. Guardate, il Bangladesh raggiunge l'India. L'intero mondo in via di sviluppo raggiunge il mondo occidentale con bassa mortalità infantile e famiglie poco numerose. Ma abbiamo ancora il miliardo dei più poveri. Potete vedere il miliardo più povero? queste scatole che avevo qui? Sono ancora qui sopra. E hanno ancora una probabilità di sopravvivenza infantile solo del 70 - 80 per cento, significa che se ti nascono sei bambini, ci saranno almeno quattro che sopravvivono fino alla prossima generazione. E la popolazione raddoppierà in una generazione. Quindi l'unica strada per far davvero fermare la crescita demografica è di continuare a migliorare le probabilità di sopravvivenza dei bambini fino al 90 per cento. Ecco perché gli investments of the Gates Foundation, UNICEF and humanitarian organizations, together with national governments in the poorest countries are so right. Why are they really helping to achieve a sustainable population of the world. Can we stop at nine billion if we do the right thing. Child survival is the new dream. It's just child survival that will stop the growth of the population. Will it happen? Well, I'm not an optimist nor a pessimist. They are, rather, a "possible". It is a new category where we put our emotions aside and just work analytically with the world. It can be done. We have a lot more just world. With Green Technology and investment to alleviate poverty as a global governance, the world may become so. Look at the location of the old west. Remember when this blue box was all alone, ruling the world, living his life. This will not happen. The role of the old west in the new world is to become the cornerstone of the new world - nothing more, nothing less. But it is a particularly important role. Get it right and abituatevici. Thank you all.
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